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Global M&A Valuation Outlook 2013

American Appraisal is pleased to announce the publication of its Global M&A Valuation Outlook. This wide-reaching report, now in its second year, draws on in-depth analysis of American Appraisal’s own data from deals in 2012, compiled from its 27-country network of operations, combined with industry data on international corporate deal-flow.

See our report featured in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times (free registration required to access the FT), Investor's Business Daily and Emerging Markets.
 

A big jump in the amount of M&A activity in the fourth quarter helped prop up the overall activity for the year, which held fairly steady in comparison to 2011. However, during 2012, there was a global dip in multiples with a number of factors combining to put downward pressure on valuations. Our key findings include:

  • Asia-to-Europe EBITDA multiples jumped to 9.9x in 2012 from 5.7x a year earlier.
  • Europeans retracted from slowdown-ridden China as inbound M&A dropped 16%.
  • Increased write-downs, owing to overestimated economic forecasts, are pushing down valuations but goodwill accounting remains high, indicating that companies are looking to minimize amortization charges and bolster net earnings; this trend is expected to be mixed in 2013 depending on sector and region.
  • Private equity exits were buoyed by secondary buyouts, representing 25% of all deals by volume in the second half of 2012 and 40% by value, with American Appraisal forecasting similar levels throughout 2013.  This compares to an average over the last eight years of 20% of all deals by volume and 30% by value.
  • Energy and mining company EBITDA multiples fell to 8.6x in 2012, while deal volume reached a five-year high. Impairment charges are set to increase as demand for resources weakens.
  • Technology multiples were down to 8.6x due to a lull in innovation as future products and ideas remain in the lab.

 

 

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